Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc72d…6dde other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$134 (+57%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$175
14 days+$175
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$181
politics 18% −$35
world 10% −$12
sports 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +12.1% +1.4% 36% 27% +106.1%
≤30d 14 -10.2% -18.8% 29% 21% +54.9%
≤90d 14 -10.2% -18.8% 29% 21% +54.9%
all 14 -10.2% -18.8% 29% 21% +54.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 21% +54.9%
10% -26.5% 21% +40.1%
15% -33.6% 21% +26.5%
20% -40.1% 21% +14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +71% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$6 · ×7.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage14d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +172%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$190 +188%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $10 −$8 -86%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $18 −$18 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 38h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 56¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $291 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $101 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $3 14d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $2 14d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 60¢ $10 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 27¢ $20 14d
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.54 · official $45.54 (match) · 30 history records