Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc731…9ad5 crypto 25 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$116 (-15%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$205
other 17% +$20
sports 13% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.0% -26.7% 32% 32% -28.0%
≤30d 25 -19.0% -26.7% 32% 32% -28.0%
≤90d 25 -19.0% -26.7% 32% 32% -28.0%
all 25 -19.0% -26.7% 32% 32% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 32% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 28% -34.9%
15% -40.1% 28% -41.2%
20% -46.0% 28% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$30 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$36 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$31 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$16 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$42 +191%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 +$79 +149%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 +$133 +622%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $22 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $53 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records