Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc732…45b3 other 508 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,131 (+9%) realized +$1,712 · open −$581
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate32%188W / 403L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days−$415
14 days−$472
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$1,914
world 17% −$628
weather 17% −$109
crypto 7% −$173
finance 1% −$64
politics 1% −$31
sports 0% +$2
tech 0% −$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -92.3% -93.1% 2% 2% -40.1%
≤30d 242 -62.1% -65.7% 10% 7% -13.7%
≤90d 591 -10.7% -19.2% 32% 18% -7.6%
all 591 -10.7% -19.2% 32% 18% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 18% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 13% -16.4%
15% -34.0% 11% -24.5%
20% -40.5% 10% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized+$1,712
Unrealized−$581
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses188 / 403
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)591 / 508
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $105 $92 −$12 (-12%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $52 +$18 (+50%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $23 +$7 (+47%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 2¢ $459 $22 −$436 (-95%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 16¢ 2¢ $96 $10 −$86 (-89%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 313 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 6¢ $31 47h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 47h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $123 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 83¢ $83 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $336 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $25 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $71 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 83¢ $83 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 4¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 4¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 9¢ $51 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $604 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $300 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.52 · official $411.57 (match) · 3500 history records