Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc735…54b3 crypto 253 markets active 4d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-22%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%107W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$74
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$90
sports 26% −$28
other 8% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -36.3% -42.4% 34% 27% -40.9%
≤30d 248 -22.5% -29.9% 43% 37% -28.9%
≤90d 253 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 36% -33.4%
all 253 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 36% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 36% -33.4%
10% -36.8% 28% -39.8%
15% -42.9% 21% -45.6%
20% -48.5% 17% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses107 / 146
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 611 history records