Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc739…b6c3 sports 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,387 (-9%) realized −$3,425 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%35W / 33L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days+$362
14 days+$683
30 days−$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,055
other 36% −$356
politics 13% −$2,140
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.6% -38.1% 40% 40% +1.0%
≤30d 28 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 39% +1.6%
≤90d 30 -24.1% -31.3% 37% 37% -2.8%
all 68 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 46% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 46% -13.7%
10% -16.7% 43% -22.0%
15% -24.7% 37% -29.5%
20% -32.1% 29% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$644) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$403 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$934
Realized−$3,425
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage159d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $550 $616 +$66 (+12%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $195 $169 −$26 (-13%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 36¢ 36¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $360 −$74 -21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,341 +$230 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,111 +$507 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $338 +$219 +65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $430 +$626 +145%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $493 −$482 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,144 −$1,130 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $401 −$395 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,088 +$618 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $797 −$666 -84%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,059 −$1,478 -48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,289 +$369 +29%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $368 +$918 +250%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $858 −$838 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $476 +$753 +158%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $541 −$65 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $193 −$189 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $191 −$186 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $321 +$345 +107%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $410 −$400 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,870 +$935 +50%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,006 +$865 +86%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $393 −$384 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Apr 07 $291 −$291 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $186 +$105 +56%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Feb 23 $390 −$390 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Feb 18 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 17 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 17 $25 +$29 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 17 $103 +$143 +138%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 15 $70 +$33 +47%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $4,800 −$2,141 -45%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 08 $36 +$26 +72%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 08 $34 +$2 +6%
Wizards vs. Nets Feb 07 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $453 +$276 +61%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-03? Feb 07 $687 −$687 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $46 −$31 -67%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $17 +$50 +294%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 36¢ $153 1m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $286 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $566 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,341 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $360 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,111 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $338 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $493 8d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $496 14d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $648 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $409 14d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $1,056 14d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $401 14d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $430 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,706 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 10¢ $120 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $279 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $278 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $797 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $809 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 14d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 78¢ $282 15d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $1,007 15d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $858 16d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $368 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $933.56 · official $933.56 (match) · 317 history records