Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C7 0xc739…e55d weather 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+5%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%70W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 3% -4.7%
≤30d 70 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 3% -4.7%
≤90d 70 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 3% -4.7%
all 70 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 3% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.2% 3% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -3.1% 1% -13.8%
15% -12.4% 1% -22.2%
20% -21.0% 1% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses70 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? No 92¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? Yes 94¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? Jun 21 $24 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $27 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $24 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $26 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? BUY No 90¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $25 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records