Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc73c…c1a3 crypto 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$74 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%69W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$236
14 days−$262
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$206
other 12% −$144
world 2% +$22
sports 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 47% -27.7%
≤30d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 44% -25.3%
≤90d 82 -10.8% -19.3% 59% 54% -15.2%
all 124 -12.1% -20.4% 56% 48% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 48% -15.6%
10% -28.1% 36% -23.7%
15% -35.0% 19% -31.1%
20% -41.4% 10% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses69 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage123d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $38 $33 −$6 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $226 −$191 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $139 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $133 +$57 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $148 −$144 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $78 +$71 +92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 −$10 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 −$66 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$39 +131%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 19 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 19 $44 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 19 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 19 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $27 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $56 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $93 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 19 $28 −$13 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 19 $64 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 19 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $28 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $27 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $73 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $62 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $42 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 19 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 19 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 19 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $39 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $34 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $34 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $34 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $226 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $32.63 (match) · 536 history records