Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc740…99fd weather 554 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%540W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$52
other 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.9% -11.2% 98% 2% -9.8%
≤30d 262 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 543 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.7%
all 543 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$37 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses540 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)543 / 554
History coverage69d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 4m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $100 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.44 · official $408.44 (match) · 1552 history records