Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc741…fe95 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$23
politics 40% −$28
economics 5% −$3
sports 5% +$40
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 94 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$540) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×12.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage129d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $333 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $267 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $266 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $295 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $1,399 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $285 −$2 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $347 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $572 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $299 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $342 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $309 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $319 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $345 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $271 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $561 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $276 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $797 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $345 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $341 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 4h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 35h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 39h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 23d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $247 24d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $247 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $335 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $335 25d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $281 25d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $281 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $282 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $282 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $326 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $326 28d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $315 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $315 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $266 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $266 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $295 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $295 32d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $243 32d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $243 32d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $240 33d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $240 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 387 history records