Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc741…e4b0 other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$24
politics 27% −$15
sports 12% +$5
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage131d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $318 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $507 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $517 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $307 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $308 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $801 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $460 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $298 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $212 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $307 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $293 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 30 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $245 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $239 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $221 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $444 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $281 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 11h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 22d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $289 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $289 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $290 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $290 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $257 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $257 28d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $251 28d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $251 29d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $256 29d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $256 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 31d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $284 31d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $284 31d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $308 32d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $308 32d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 32d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 33d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 34d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records