Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc741…880a other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,264 (-38%) realized −$3,207 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$509per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$907
politics 13% −$1,100
tech 10% −$864
sports 3% −$300
economics 1% −$100
culture 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 16 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$204 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$5,191
Realized−$3,207
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage202d
Avg bet$509
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5,249 $5,191 −$57 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Dec 09 $514 −$514 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? Dec 08 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? Dec 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31? Dec 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20 Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9? Dec 08 $50 −$50 -100%
GPT ads by December 31? Dec 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5,385 1h
Maduro out in 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 195d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 46¢ $1,000 197d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 199d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $48 199d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $70 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $49 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $59 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 200d
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 200d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 40¢ $300 200d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 200d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,191.22 · official $5,191.22 (match) · 51 history records