Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc745…4544 crypto 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate81%170W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$21
world 1% +$10
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% −$10
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 +3.6% -6.3% 81% 59% -10.4%
≤30d 145 +3.6% -6.3% 81% 59% -10.4%
≤90d 145 +3.6% -6.3% 81% 59% -10.4%
all 209 +2.2% -7.5% 81% 49% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 49% -10.8%
10% -16.4% 21% -19.4%
15% -24.5% 6% -27.1%
20% -31.9% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses170 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage452d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records