Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc745…9499 sports 542 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,117 (-5%) realized −$5,040 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%250W / 290L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$129
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$7,948
other 43% +$2,616
crypto 5% −$705
politics 1% +$664
world 0% +$225
culture 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 71% +18.9%
≤30d 7 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 71% +18.9%
≤90d 8 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 62% +18.9%
all 540 -7.3% -16.1% 46% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 39% -13.6%
10% -24.1% 33% -21.9%
15% -31.5% 27% -29.5%
20% -38.2% 21% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$143 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$5,040
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses250 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)540 / 542
History coverage613d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 540 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 64¢ $101 $78 −$23 (-23%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 30¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $178 +$27 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $78 +$100 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$27 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $66 −$23 -35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4900 and $5000 on August 24 at Aug 25 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 24 at 4PM ET? Aug 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 11? Aug 10 $40 −$17 -43%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3400 and $3500 on August 8? Aug 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 8? Aug 07 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on August 13? Aug 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on August 11? Aug 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 13? Aug 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 11? Aug 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7? Aug 07 $50 +$19 +39%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 07 $75 +$12 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 8? Aug 07 $26 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 7 at 5PM ET? Aug 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 7 at 5P Aug 07 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5 Aug 06 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 August 4–10? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $210 in August? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 8? Aug 06 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on August 6? Aug 06 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? Aug 05 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Spain beat Netherlands? Apr 05 $490 −$490 -100%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Apr 05 $566 −$222 -39%
Lakers vs. Nets Mar 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? Mar 11 $200 +$250 +125%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09? Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Mar 02 $241 −$241 -100%
Pacers vs. Heat Mar 01 $151 −$151 -100%
Thunder vs. Hawks Mar 01 $200 +$41 +20%
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-27? Feb 28 $200 +$151 +75%
Will Ipswich win on 2025-02-26? Feb 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-02-26? Feb 27 $270 −$270 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Feb 26 $200 +$70 +35%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-25? Feb 26 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-22? Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-02-22? Feb 22 $373 −$373 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Feb 22 $270 +$203 +75%
Will Brentford win on 2025-02-21? Feb 22 $135 +$135 +100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Feb 21 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Feb 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $203 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $205 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $205 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $178 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $78 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $42 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $43 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $39 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin above $114K on August 24 at 4PM ET? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 303d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4900 and $5000 on August 24 at BUY No 94¢ $40 303d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 11? SELL No 27¢ $23 317d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 8? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 319d
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on August 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 319d
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on August 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 319d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 319d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 319d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 8? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 319d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 11? BUY No 47¢ $40 319d
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7? BUY Up 72¢ $50 320d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? SELL No 70¢ $18 320d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 8? SELL No 93¢ $27 320d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $113K on August 7 at 5PM ET? SELL No 96¢ $55 320d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.45 · official $124.45 (match) · 1875 history records