Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc746…3943 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,847 (+16%) realized +$5,786 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%40W / 53L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$504est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$373
7 days+$952
14 days+$6,496
30 days+$6,326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$6,010
other 4% +$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.9% -22.1% 41% 41% -0.9%
≤30d 93 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 41% +6.9%
≤90d 93 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 41% +6.9%
all 93 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 41% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 41% +6.9%
10% -21.0% 40% -3.3%
15% -28.7% 35% -12.7%
20% -35.6% 34% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$430 vs −$209 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$5,786
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$504
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage27d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 46¢ 52¢ $431 $492 +$61 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,448 +$763 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $29 +$33 +117%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 +$89 +87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $795 −$783 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $608 +$426 +70%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $145 −$142 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $369 −$3 -1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $75 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $101 +$30 +30%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $830 +$806 +97%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $750 −$41 -6%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $299 +$563 +188%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $346 −$340 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $370 −$366 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $661 −$651 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $178 −$176 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $820 −$809 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,074 +$731 +68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $182 −$178 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,872 +$717 +38%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $170 +$401 +237%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $188 −$184 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $625 +$583 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,478 +$1,338 +54%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $86 −$84 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $435 −$427 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $765 +$467 +61%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,442 +$1,312 +91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $398 −$390 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $16 +$64 +388%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $326 +$304 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $317 +$219 +69%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $605 +$542 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $106 −$45 -43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +89%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $223 −$26 -12%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $407 +$523 +129%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $150 −$149 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $378 −$372 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,211 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $459 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $989 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 46¢ $438 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 58¢ $191 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 30¢ $102 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $14 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $795 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $10 41h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 45¢ $145 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 39¢ $351 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 38¢ $6 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 38¢ $0 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 38¢ $349 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 48¢ $14 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $14 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $579 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 60¢ $29 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $29 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 25¢ $75 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 66¢ $131 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European SELL NAVI Junior 33¢ $208 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.93 · official $491.93 (match) · 282 history records