Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C7 0xc747…a5c7 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-9%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$377
other 22% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -37.5% -43.4% 50% 17% -50.4%
≤30d 6 -37.5% -43.4% 50% 17% -50.4%
≤90d 6 -37.5% -43.4% 50% 17% -50.4%
all 6 -37.5% -43.4% 50% 17% -50.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.4% 17% -50.4%
10% -48.8% 17% -55.1%
15% -53.8% 0% -59.4%
20% -58.3% 0% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$133 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $183 +$1 +1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $172 +$10 +6%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $320 −$308 -96%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $53 −$53 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $42 +$11 +26%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 −$37 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 32m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $183 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $183 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $172 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $12 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $320 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $53 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $42 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $24 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records