Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C7
0xc749…3a02
other · 65 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$47 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)40 / 65
History coverage36d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 25 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 46¢ 57¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 12¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$13 +240%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 +$7 +114%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +143%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +15%
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 +$3 +65%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Trent Alexander-Arnold score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 +$7 +325%
Major US official out by May 31? May 22 $15 +$22 +150%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 20 $10 +$5 +47%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? May 17 $1 −$1 -87%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $3 +$6 +197%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18? May 15 $1 $0 +34%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$32
crypto 29% −$22
sports 21% +$10
politics 1% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 43¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $13 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 30h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $6 34h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 98¢ $2 36h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.4% -5.5% 33% 33% -19.3%
≤30d 36 +21.6% +10.0% 44% 44% +8.9%
≤90d 40 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 42% -0.8%
all 40 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 42% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 42% -0.8%
10% -7.3% 40% -10.3%
15% -16.2% 38% -19.0%
20% -24.5% 32% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.66 · official $63.62 (match) · 125 history records