Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc74b…33d3 politics 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$28
other 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -7.9% -16.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage662d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Feb 24 $52 $0 -1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sean McDermott win NFL Coach of the Year? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 +3%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Jindal be Trump's HHS Secretary? Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Alabama win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Biden wins the Popular Vote? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 09 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $51 16h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 22d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 28d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 29d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 32d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 34d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $51 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $51 39d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 60d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 60d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 65d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 65d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $52 72d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $52 73d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $52 83d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $52 84d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 92d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 93d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 94d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 95d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $52 99d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $52 99d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $52 103d
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $52 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records