Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc74c…6c99 politics 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$2
politics 32% −$9
sports 16% −$5
economics 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
culture 4% −$2
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 108 -8.2% -16.9% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage374d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$6 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $92 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 22? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $3 $0 -14%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 11 $97 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 08 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $199 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $201 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 25 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $2 $0 -14%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 21 $1 $0 -17%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $101 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $103 −$1 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $101 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $91 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $92 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $91 23d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $92 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $93 41d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 109d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 111d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 111d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 111d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 112d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 119d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 119d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $93 119d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $93 120d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 120d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 121d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $91 121d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $91 124d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 127d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 127d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.35 · official $96.35 (match) · 497 history records