Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc752…2873 weather 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate88%35W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$5
crypto 31% −$114
other 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 89% 56% -18.9%
≤30d 33 -3.9% -13.0% 85% 21% -17.2%
≤90d 40 -2.4% -11.7% 88% 18% -15.0%
all 40 -2.4% -11.7% 88% 18% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 18% -15.0%
10% -20.1% 10% -23.1%
15% -27.8% 5% -30.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$45 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses35 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage37d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $111 −$109 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $66 +$2 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$7 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 29 $31 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28? May 28 $61 −$61 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28? May 28 $58 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $54 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 26 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 26 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? May 26 $48 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $48 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 22? May 22 $38 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 21? May 21 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 21? May 21 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 20? May 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 18? May 20 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 20? May 20 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 16? May 17 $54 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 15? May 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 15? May 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 14? May 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 13? May 13 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? May 12 $42 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 11? May 11 $41 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $66 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $57 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $56 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records