Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C7 0xc754…4b1d sports 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,747 (-3%) realized −$1,249 · open −$498
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%99W / 128L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$852est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,257
7 days−$6,385
14 days−$3,948
30 days−$2,695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$3,124
other 7% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -36.1% -42.2% 34% 31% -36.0%
≤30d 227 -3.6% -12.8% 44% 42% -13.6%
≤90d 227 -3.6% -12.8% 44% 42% -13.6%
all 227 -3.6% -12.8% 44% 42% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 42% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 42% -21.9%
15% -28.8% 40% -29.4%
20% -35.8% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$260 vs −$222 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,957
Realized−$1,249
Unrealized−$498
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses99 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$852
Open positions7
Markets (closed)227 / 234
History coverage22d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) T1 Academy 34¢ 40¢ $614 $726 +$112 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $497 $495 −$1 (-0%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 45¢ 44¢ $312 $309 −$3 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $245 $243 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 49¢ 50¢ $181 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Chivas Esports 31¢ 0¢ $541 $1 −$540 (-100%)
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 21¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $358 −$358 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $189 +$276 +146%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $343 −$343 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $207 +$235 +114%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $219 −$219 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $157 −$157 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 16 $217 −$217 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $158 −$158 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $523 −$523 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $489 +$311 +64%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $175 +$279 +159%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $177 −$177 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $138 +$100 +72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $160 +$80 +50%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $662 +$375 +57%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $360 +$25 +7%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $374 +$469 +126%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $377 +$98 +26%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$50 +97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $287 −$287 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $363 −$363 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $864 −$864 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $151 −$151 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $249 −$249 -100%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $449 −$449 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $144 +$145 +101%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $713 −$713 -100%
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 13 $353 +$154 +44%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $283 +$286 +101%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $69 +$84 +122%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $28 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $50 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $191 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $88 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $39 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $161 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $2 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $8 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $29 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 6h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $187 6h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $168 7h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 31¢ $3 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $23 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $85 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $18 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $2 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $14 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 30¢ $71 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 27¢ $6 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 26¢ $74 9h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 74¢ $7 10h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 74¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 73¢ $7 10h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 73¢ $74 10h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 72¢ $26 10h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 33¢ $247 13h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $8 13h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 21¢ $56 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,956.83 · official $1,956.83 (match) · 810 history records