Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C7 0xc75a…fb2d sports 39 markets active 5d ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%5W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$11
other 14% −$36
sports 8% +$7
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 39 -12.0% -20.4% 13% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 10% -10.1%
10% -28.0% 10% -18.7%
15% -35.0% 10% -26.6%
20% -41.4% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 92% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$9 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses5 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage626d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $830 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $997 −$2 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Guardians vs. Tigers Sep 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $12 +$15 +127%
Tigers vs. White Sox Sep 11 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 09 $6 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 03 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Dec 30 $100 +$109 +109%
South Florida vs. San José State Dec 27 $146 −$146 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $103 +$112 +108%
Will Helen McEntee be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Dec 24 $3 −$2 -67%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $21 −$21 -100%
ALDS: Royals vs. Yankees Game 4 Oct 16 $12 −$12 -100%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $829 4d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $830 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $160 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $820 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $160 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $821 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $457 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $524 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $525 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $458 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $995 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $996 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $996 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $997 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $33 10d
Guardians vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 57¢ $24 283d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $12 285d
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY Tigers 56¢ $6 317d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 368d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $5 409d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $5 409d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 410d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 411d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 414d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 415d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records