Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc75d…81a5 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$36 (+12%) realized +$45 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$33
other 42% +$13
crypto 11% $0
politics 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.6% +23.6% 100% 75% +11.0%
≤30d 4 +36.6% +23.6% 100% 75% +11.0%
≤90d 4 +36.6% +23.6% 100% 75% +11.0%
all 4 +36.6% +23.6% 100% 75% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.6% 75% +11.0%
10% +11.8% 50% +0.4%
15% +1.0% 50% -9.3%
20% -8.9% 25% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 +$8 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $35 +$29 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.95 · official $83.95 (match) · 13 history records