Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc765…d950 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%36W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$6
other 38% +$3
politics 12% $0
sports 7% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.8% -11.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 21 +19.6% +8.2% 38% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +15.6% +4.6% 33% 6% -9.4%
all 106 +5.2% -4.8% 34% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 4% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 3% -18.1%
15% -22.2% 2% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses36 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage467d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 53¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $57 −$4 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $162 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $179 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $160 +$4 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $454 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $319 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $174 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $173 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $173 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $160 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $156 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $103 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $155 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $74 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $312 +$1 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $145 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $903 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $931 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $993 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $771 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $909 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $14 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $60 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $76 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $175 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $175 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $53 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $33 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $162 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $162 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $178 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $179 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $91 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $81 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $179 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $164 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $158 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $122 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $38 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $160 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $40 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $40 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 12¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.37 · official $8.20 · 370 history records