Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

C7 0xc767…1490 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$157 (-24%) realized −$145 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%7W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$169

7 days+$136

14 days+$64

30 days−$25

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)+20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+149.5%	+125.8%	44%	44%	+80.3%
≤30d	20	+33.6%	+20.9%	35%	35%	-14.1%
≤90d	20	+33.6%	+20.9%	35%	35%	-14.1%
all	20	+33.6%	+20.9%	35%	35%	-14.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.9%	35%	-14.1%
10%	+9.3%	35%	-22.3%
15%	-1.3%	25%	-29.8%
20%	-10.9%	20%	-36.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -57% → late +125% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$22 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized−$145

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses7 / 13

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 26

History coverage18d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals	Yes	34¢	20¢	$29	$17	−$12 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann	Jun 23	$20	+$30	+146%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci	Jun 23	$18	−$18	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$2	-29%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse	Jun 23	$22	+$18	+80%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$11	+$161	+1521%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$7	−$7	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners	Jun 16	$28	−$28	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+28%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$22	−$22	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 07	$20	−$20	-98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 07	$15	−$15	-100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 07	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 07	$53	−$50	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 07	$26	+$15	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 06	$5	−$5	-95%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$100	+$25	+25%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5	Jun 06	$26	−$26	-98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 06	$26	+$11	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	34¢	$30	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	4h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann	BUY Luciano Darderi	40¢	$20	6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci	BUY Mattia Bellucci	38¢	$18	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Up	14¢	$4	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$5	6h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse	SELL Ignacio Buse	72¢	$40	6h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse	BUY Ignacio Buse	39¢	$22	8h
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY	6¢	$11	20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	54¢	$24	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	39¢	$7	6d
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals AND Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals AND Will Arge	BUY	12¢	$8	6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners	BUY Over	43¢	$28	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Up	73¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$22	7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15	BUY	13¢	$10	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	8¢	$9	9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	39¢	$51	9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Flavio Cobolli	20¢	$20	16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$5	16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	16d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$26	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$26	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$26	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$42	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$26	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.63 · official $17.49 (match) · 42 history records