Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc768…d748 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$537 (+4%) realized +$559 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$402
14 days−$404
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$129
politics 31% −$231
sports 11% +$715
economics 8% −$2
tech 4% −$8
crypto 4% −$85
finance 2% +$69
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 10% 6% -15.3%
≤30d 44 -1.6% -10.9% 23% 16% -6.6%
≤90d 46 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 15% -6.6%
all 46 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 15% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 15% -6.6%
10% -20.2% 13% -15.5%
15% -27.9% 11% -23.7%
20% -35.0% 9% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$20 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$559
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage38d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $69 $66 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $37 $22 −$15 (-41%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 67¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $109 +$188 +172%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $1,066 −$41 -4%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $1,321 −$60 -4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $236 −$10 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $74 −$8 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $192 −$6 -3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Jun 14 $221 −$16 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $73 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 14 $404 −$59 -15%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $346 −$57 -16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $832 −$84 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $582 −$22 -4%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -40%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$6 -41%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 13 $24 −$6 -24%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 12 $102 −$15 -15%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +550%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $137 −$7 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $295 +$4 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $571 −$8 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $157 −$2 -1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $1,280 −$91 -7%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $190 +$95 +50%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $262 +$38 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $162 −$13 -8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1,172 +$662 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $6 +$2 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $203 +$58 +29%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 16 $1 $0 -44%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $71 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes $130 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $109 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $5 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 89¢ $266 3d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $226 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $74 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $155 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $104 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $93 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $68 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $128 4d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $236 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 4d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $1,000 55¢ $8 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $148 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $1,000 55¢ $152 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $138 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.65 · official $91.65 (match) · 239 history records