Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C7 0xc769…8316 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$137 (+4%) realized −$450 · open +$587

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$602per market

Trades / day9.4pace

Fees−$45est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$1,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-9.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+0.6%	-9.0%	60%	60%	-6.2%
≤30d	5	+0.6%	-9.0%	60%	60%	-6.2%
≤90d	5	+0.6%	-9.0%	60%	60%	-6.2%
all	5	+0.6%	-9.0%	60%	60%	-6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.4 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-9.0%	60%	-6.2%
10% ← realistic here	-17.7%	60%	-15.1%
15%	-25.7%	60%	-23.3%
20%	-33.0%	60%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$351 vs −$477 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,487

Realized−$450

Unrealized+$587

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$45

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$602

Trades / day9.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Japan	60¢	99¢	$900	$1,487	+$587 (+65%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$585	+$363	+62%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$410	−$400	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$658	+$461	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$404	+$230	+57%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$643	−$554	-86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	60¢	$911	1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	61¢	$585	6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$307	12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,120	29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$658	32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$634	32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$34	33h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	33h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	2¢	$55	33h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$80	34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	63¢	$404	34h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$512	34h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,487.25 · official $1,469.25 · 14 history records