Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc771…b251 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$4
politics 23% −$2
world 19% +$1
crypto 11% +$1
economics 8% $0
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 10 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 0% -8.7%
all 10 +1.2% -8.5% 60% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage76d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliament Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will AJ Brown be traded? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 27 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? May 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 08 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026? May 06 $21 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliament SELL No 98¢ $50 6d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 97¢ $50 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 19d
Will AJ Brown be traded? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 23d
Will AJ Brown be traded? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 24d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 26d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $50 26d
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliament BUY No 97¢ $50 27d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $19 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 45d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 45d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 45d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 99¢ $49 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 92¢ $5 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 92¢ $41 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 95¢ $48 47d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 47d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 98¢ $11 47d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 98¢ $38 48d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 48d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 48d
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.49 · official $159.49 (match) · 40 history records