Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc772…88af other 30 markets active 5d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$101
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$23
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -77.6% -79.7% 0% 0% -76.5%
≤30d 7 -23.8% -31.0% 43% 29% -14.9%
≤90d 30 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 40% -13.8%
all 30 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 40% -13.8%
10% -27.0% 40% -22.0%
15% -34.0% 33% -29.6%
20% -40.5% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage50d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$34 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$43 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$25 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $125 +$54 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $76 −$8 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $92 +$27 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $40 −$24 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $11 +$15 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $3 +$10 +320%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $49 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $54 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $103 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $67 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $68 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $76 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $76 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $57 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $57 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $38 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $43 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 14d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 37d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 37d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 38d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 40d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records