Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C7 0xc774…f218 sports 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,371 (-4%) realized −$5,362 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%271W / 209L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$455est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$110
14 days−$370
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$4,416
politics 3% −$1,411
culture 2% +$642
other 2% −$748
crypto 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 47% -3.8%
≤30d 168 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 46% -8.8%
≤90d 447 -8.9% -17.5% 58% 44% -14.4%
all 480 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 44% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 44% -13.7%
10% -26.1% 35% -22.0%
15% -33.2% 30% -29.5%
20% -39.8% 23% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$98 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$5,362
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses271 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$455
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage226d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Chun-Hsin Tseng 83¢ 76¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$23 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $86 +$43 +50%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $50 +$45 +90%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$41 +83%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$39 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$25 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $279 +$47 +17%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$104 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $80 +$44 +55%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$42 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $24 +$21 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $60 +$65 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $99 +$59 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $48 −$47 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $30 +$18 +60%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $99 +$37 +38%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $38 +$55 +146%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $99 +$39 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $51 +$33 +65%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Damm (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $508 −$506 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $1,949 +$58 +3%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) Jun 09 $21 +$30 +143%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $30 −$29 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $50 +$77 +152%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $56 −$55 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $20 +$44 +216%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $20 +$16 +77%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $38 +$3 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $361 +$76 +21%
Set 1 Winner: Mikrut vs Nava Jun 07 $12 −$1 -5%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $100 +$62 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 83¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $50 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $51 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 55¢ $29 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $86 15h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 52¢ $50 25h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bellucci 54¢ $50 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $76 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 31h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $40 41h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 63¢ $30 46h
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Schoenhaus 46¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $327 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $279 2d
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 34¢ $20 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 32¢ $4 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $43 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 64¢ $45 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 100¢ $45 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $80 3d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 53¢ $24 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.18 · official $79.71 · 1012 history records