Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc778…8d85 crypto 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,782 (-6%) realized −$6,248 · open +$466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%143W / 99L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7,296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$4,904
other 18% −$273
crypto 9% −$247
culture 1% +$462
weather 1% −$828
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 40 -1.2% -10.6% 68% 62% -17.4%
all 242 -10.8% -19.3% 59% 50% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 50% -15.9%
10% -27.0% 33% -23.9%
15% -34.0% 22% -31.3%
20% -40.5% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$274 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$7,296
Realized−$6,248
Unrealized+$466
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses143 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions2
Markets (closed)242 / 246
History coverage113d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $5,829 $6,287 +$458 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1,001 $1,008 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $7,001 −$6,973 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $3,438 +$2,345 +68%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $993 +$119 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $4,164 −$4,136 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $1,621 +$522 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $505 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $4,590 +$550 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $706 +$254 +36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $2,594 +$573 +22%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 05 $148 +$34 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $5,586 +$2,208 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $4,328 +$1,183 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $1,900 +$45 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1,115 −$1,115 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $4,523 +$1,457 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $200 −$49 -25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $1,700 +$304 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $1,090 +$314 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $67 +$37 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 17 $121 +$191 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $1,417 +$204 +14%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $1,209 +$208 +17%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 15 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Apr 08 $1,226 +$990 +81%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $1,479 −$1,479 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $3,861 −$3,861 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $350 +$289 +83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Apr 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 05 $3,500 +$745 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $255 +$111 +43%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Apr 05 $748 −$748 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Apr 01 $1,509 +$943 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 29 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 28 $140 +$122 +87%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 28 $2,000 +$353 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 28 $1,717 +$347 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 28 $1,408 +$2,297 +163%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 27 $572 −$572 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 24 $1,965 +$415 +21%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $933 +$265 +28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 22 $1,495 +$264 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 21 $291 +$455 +156%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner Mar 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $818 −$627 -77%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Mar 20 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 20¢ $193 21m
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $2,007 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $504 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $77 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $62 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1,008 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $197 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $101 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $101 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 10¢ $103 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $96 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,030 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,295.75 · official $7,584.82 · 1381 history records