Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc779…a904 crypto 1770 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (224 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$3,339 (+25%) realized +$3,342 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%877W / 503L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day224.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$7,556
other 2% −$2
sports 1% −$1
weather 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (224 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 810 +6.4% -3.7% 47% 47% +18.3%
≤30d 1380 +41.7% +28.2% 64% 64% +42.0%
≤90d 1380 +41.7% +28.2% 64% 64% +42.0%
all 1380 +41.7% +28.2% 64% 64% +42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover224.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.2% 64% +42.0%
10% ← realistic here +16.0% 63% +28.4%
15% +4.8% 63% +16.0%
20% -5.5% 63% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$3,342
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses877 / 503
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1380 / 1770
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day224.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal to win the second half? No 85¢ 84¢ $139 $138 −$2 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? No 70¢ 69¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
France to win the second half? No 45¢ 44¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 47¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 0 BV Borussia 09 Dortmund? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 48m
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY No 70¢ $116 1h
France to win the second half? BUY No 45¢ $75 1h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY No 85¢ $140 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 54¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.08 · official $324.72 (match) · 3500 history records