Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C7 0xc77c…05c5 crypto 900 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,361 (+4%) realized +$1,360 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%425W / 694L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day115.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,609
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 532 -56.4% -60.5% 19% 18% -62.8%
≤30d 1119 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 34% -25.3%
≤90d 1119 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 34% -25.3%
all 1119 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 34% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 34% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 34% -32.5%
15% -39.8% 34% -39.0%
20% -45.7% 34% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1,360
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses425 / 694
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1119 / 900
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day115.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 54¢ 56¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $33 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.26 · official $39.53 · 3500 history records