Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc784…0a7d other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%24W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$20
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$26
other 27% −$27
sports 16% −$12
crypto 12% −$12
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$1
economics 3% −$6
finance 2% −$1
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 76 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 167 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 185 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses24 / 161
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage100d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $109 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $43 +$1 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $248 −$3 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $376 −$3 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $332 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $20 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $49 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $284 +$1 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $65 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 03 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $210 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $53 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $815 −$4 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $433 −$2 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $104 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 16h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $59 16h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $59 20h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $44 21h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $44 27h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $54 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $44 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 44h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 45h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 96¢ $39 2d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $41 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $42 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 97¢ $50 4d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.39 · official $57.39 (match) · 698 history records