Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc785…7eb0 crypto 1052 markets active 3d ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$440 (-6%) realized −$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%573W / 482L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$59
14 days−$83
30 days−$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$350
weather 24% −$78
tech 1% −$44
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -7.1% -15.9% 71% 71% -16.4%
≤30d 557 -10.1% -18.7% 55% 54% -16.8%
≤90d 1055 -7.5% -16.3% 54% 54% -15.6%
all 1055 -7.5% -16.3% 54% 54% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 54% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 49% -23.7%
15% -31.6% 40% -31.0%
20% -38.3% 33% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses573 / 482
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1055 / 1052
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1055 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $7 +$3 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 72¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.97 · official $263.30 (match) · 3500 history records