Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc789…5862 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$1
world 29% +$13
other 29% −$2
sports 7% −$20
finance 1% +$12
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 16 +0.4% -9.1% 62% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 30 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 7% -8.8%
all 38 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 11% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 5% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage531d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $91 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $39 −$1 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $33 $0 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $35 +$12 +35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 18 $118 −$6 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $204 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $252 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $229 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $230 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $229 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $229 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $36 +$8 +22%
Towson vs. Elon Mar 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 18 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? Feb 17 $4 +$4 +117%
Jackson State vs. Bethune-Cookman Feb 17 $5 $0 +2%
Aliskerov vs. Muniz Feb 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day? Feb 05 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $39 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $39 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records