Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc78a…ea34 sports 713 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+0%) realized +$148 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%450W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$482
14 days+$828
30 days+$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$132
other 5% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +15.6% +4.6% 76% 74% -0.2%
≤30d 177 +1.1% -8.6% 65% 63% -4.6%
≤90d 682 +1.3% -8.4% 63% 61% -9.4%
all 712 +1.3% -8.3% 63% 61% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 61% -9.1%
10% -17.1% 53% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 41% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$33 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses450 / 262
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions1
Markets (closed)712 / 713
History coverage95d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 38¢ $55 $38 −$18 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $79 +$21 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $75 +$25 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $59 +$41 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $38 +$27 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 −$73 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$28 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$68 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$48 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $179 +$39 +22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $465 −$101 -22%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $498 −$32 -6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 +$12 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $81 +$19 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $36 +$24 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $197 +$113 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 +$97 +48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $193 +$147 +76%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $206 −$204 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 +$61 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$199 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $204 +$56 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $72 +$28 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $199 +$71 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $199 +$61 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $199 +$31 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $205 +$85 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$50 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $180 +$90 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $77 +$23 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $85 +$15 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $206 +$44 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $85 +$15 +17%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $55 −$39 -71%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $53 −$52 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $51 +$39 +76%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $77 +$23 +31%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $104 +$36 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $90 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $57 +$43 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $56 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $47 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $56 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $75 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $37 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $249 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $218 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $179 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 72¢ $158 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 72¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 72¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 72¢ $36 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 72¢ $169 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $465 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 81¢ $466 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 86¢ $498 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.50 · official $37.50 (match) · 1660 history records