Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc78b…5c76 sports 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$488 (+8%) realized +$474 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%47W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$23
14 days+$213
30 days+$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$415
other 42% −$131
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +40.4% +27.1% 33% 31% -8.6%
≤30d 104 +11.1% +0.5% 42% 40% +0.4%
≤90d 117 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 38% -4.4%
all 117 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 38% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 38% -4.4%
10% -14.3% 38% -13.6%
15% -22.5% 38% -21.9%
20% -30.1% 38% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$30 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,365
Realized+$474
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses47 / 70
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions13
Markets (closed)117 / 130
History coverage61d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $561 $621 +$60 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $290 $247 −$43 (-15%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+71%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 51¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 22¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 21¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$23 +89%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $211 +$82 +39%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$84 +164%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $29 +$83 +289%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $88 −$67 -76%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $72 +$118 +164%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$24 +116%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$38 +248%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$81 +781%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $67 −$46 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $46 +$44 +96%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 +$113 +274%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$5 +5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $199 −$32 -16%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $10 +$171 +1655%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $72 +$107 +149%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $72 +$209 +290%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $146 +$119 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $164 +$178 +108%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 06 $15 +$15 +100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 51¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0. BUY Over 31¢ $10 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 6h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $15 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $211 20h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 35h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 35h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 35h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 35h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 12¢ $21 38h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 46h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $44 47h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $88 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $72 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $20 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $72 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 12¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,365.01 · official $1,365.16 (match) · 323 history records