Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc78c…dd43 crypto 74 markets active 2d ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%70W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% $0
other 33% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 45 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 71 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×58.36 per $1 lost it wins $58.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses70 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage144d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 16? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 12? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 24 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 8? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 6? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23? Mar 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 16? Mar 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 10? Mar 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 7? Mar 08 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $4 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $3 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 13d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 16d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 19d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 23d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $4 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.46 · official $7.46 (match) · 231 history records