Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc78d…34ed crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$198 (+13%) realized +$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -33.4% -39.8% 26% 26% -36.4%
≤30d 23 -33.4% -39.8% 26% 26% -36.4%
≤90d 23 -33.4% -39.8% 26% 26% -36.4%
all 23 -33.4% -39.8% 26% 26% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.8% 26% -36.4%
10% ← realistic here -45.5% 17% -42.4%
15% -50.8% 9% -48.0%
20% -55.6% 9% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$34 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $43 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $54 +$32 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$26 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $74 −$38 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $54 +$48 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $109 −$100 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $74 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $65 −$14 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$13 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $54 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records