Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc78e…f98f crypto 1046 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,428 (-19%) realized −$5,428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%400W / 646L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$778
7 days−$2,388
14 days−$2,388
30 days−$2,409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,548
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 42% -23.7%
≤30d 295 -10.7% -19.2% 40% 38% -23.2%
≤90d 759 -8.2% -17.0% 39% 37% -24.9%
all 1046 -10.3% -18.9% 38% 36% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 36% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 35% -32.0%
15% -33.7% 33% -38.6%
20% -40.2% 30% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses400 / 646
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1046 / 1046
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1046 Trades
no open positions (423 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$44 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$70 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$45 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $135 −$35 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $168 −$163 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$70 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $116 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $187 −$100 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$68 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$90 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$98 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$63 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $141 +$71 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $311 +$180 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$84 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $98 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $158 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records