Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc790…85b1 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$907 (+1%) realized +$252 · open +$655
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%91W / 107L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$538est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,500
7 days+$2,009
14 days+$2,515
30 days+$1,360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$695
sports 44% +$3,238
other 3% −$1,939
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +50.6% +36.3% 57% 57% +27.1%
≤30d 196 +12.5% +1.8% 46% 43% -7.4%
≤90d 198 +11.4% +0.8% 46% 43% -7.5%
all 198 +11.4% +0.8% 46% 43% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 43% -7.5%
10% -8.9% 39% -16.3%
15% -17.7% 36% -24.4%
20% -25.7% 32% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$245 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,946
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$655
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses91 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$538
Open positions4
Markets (closed)198 / 202
History coverage42d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $731 $714 −$17 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 19¢ 50¢ $240 $638 +$398 (+166%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 32¢ 50¢ $200 $315 +$115 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 21¢ 50¢ $120 $279 +$159 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $422 +$150 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $525 −$170 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $315 +$708 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $315 −$54 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $420 +$538 +128%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $27 +$42 +156%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $746 +$597 +80%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $102 +$217 +213%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $393 +$737 +188%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $185 −$180 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $86 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $934 −$915 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $401 +$536 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $115 −$113 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,360 −$1,200 -36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2,115 +$21 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $689 +$1,428 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $333 +$74 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$66 +107%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,985 −$1,939 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $209 +$49 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $312 +$157 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $208 −$199 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $162 +$1,234 +761%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,540 −$1,509 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $835 +$1,128 +135%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $790 −$772 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $988 −$970 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,074 +$1,406 +68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,979 +$78 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $493 +$1,433 +291%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $650 −$636 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $342 −$335 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $247 −$242 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $604 +$146 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $434 +$678 +156%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $218 +$707 +325%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $53 −$51 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $340 +$1,324 +390%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $308 −$300 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $169 +$480 +284%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $60 +$109 +180%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $115 −$113 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $260 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $209 −$200 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $522 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 53m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $748 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $218 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $277 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,946.07 · official $1,946.07 (match) · 669 history records