Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc790…2079 crypto 1042 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$737 (-0%) realized −$736 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate92%954W / 87L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$89
14 days+$188
30 days−$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,290
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 75% -11.6%
≤30d 815 +0.3% -9.2% 90% 38% -9.6%
≤90d 1041 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 30% -9.7%
all 1041 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 30% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 30% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 15% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,001) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$107 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$736
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses954 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1041 / 1042
History coverage36d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1041 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 2226 history records