Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc794…465f other 51 markets active 1d ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$2
other 37% +$1
crypto 7% +$2
sports 6% +$2
politics 5% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 51 +0.5% -9.1% 41% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage276d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $3 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $41 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Nov 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Oct 02 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $4 $0 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 23 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 23 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 34h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 36h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records