Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C7 0xc79a…6d28 weather 991 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$269 (-1%) realized −$273 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%903W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$107
14 days−$53
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$296
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -3.7% -12.9% 94% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 325 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 976 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 2% -11.0%
all 976 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -11.0%
10% -19.4% 1% -19.5%
15% -27.2% 1% -27.3%
20% -34.4% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized−$273
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses903 / 73
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)976 / 991
History coverage76d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 976 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? No 97¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? No 99¢ 97¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 19? No 98¢ 96¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $30 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $40 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $40 33h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $40 34h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 41h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $40 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 42h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $30 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 45h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $40 45h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.89 · official $552.89 (match) · 2003 history records