Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc79c…73fb other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$25
other 46% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 75% -15.5%
≤30d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 75% -15.5%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 75% -15.5%
all 16 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 75% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 75% -15.5%
10% -17.3% 56% -23.5%
15% -25.3% 25% -30.9%
20% -32.6% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)16 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $65 +$24 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 +$4 +34%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 +$3 +18%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $89 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $36 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $16 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $32 13h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $14 18h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $12 27h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $12 27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $12 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $18 37h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $20 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $35 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.24 · official $243.24 (match) · 45 history records