Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc7a2…63ee world 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$10
politics 12% −$7
other 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +78.7% +61.7% 100% 100% +61.7%
≤30d 1 +78.7% +61.7% 100% 100% +61.7%
≤90d 3 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 67% -10.5%
all 3 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 67% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 67% -10.5%
10% -20.9% 33% -19.1%
15% -28.5% 33% -26.9%
20% -35.5% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$279 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage114d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $136 $128 −$7 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $102 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 23 $313 +$247 +79%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $279 −$279 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $209 +$24 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $81 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 1h
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $102 72d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $136 72d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 56¢ $313 103d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $209 109d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $279 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.46 · official $356.46 (match) · 11 history records