Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc7a2…3f53 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,029 (+12%) realized +$1,040 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 41L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$1,278
14 days+$1,434
30 days+$971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$486
other 42% +$392
crypto 10% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +27.7% +15.5% 47% 47% +21.2%
≤30d 69 -1.4% -10.8% 41% 38% +3.2%
≤90d 69 -1.4% -10.8% 41% 38% +3.2%
all 69 -1.4% -10.8% 41% 38% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 38% +3.2%
10% -19.3% 36% -6.7%
15% -27.1% 35% -15.7%
20% -34.3% 32% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$62 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,151
Realized+$1,040
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage25d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 54¢ 54¢ $1,161 $1,151 −$11 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $97 +$25 +26%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? Jun 29 $89 +$69 +78%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $253 −$177 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $405 +$292 +72%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $296 +$271 +91%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $401 −$177 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $200 −$10 -5%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $255 +$357 +140%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $73 +$36 +49%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $149 +$323 +216%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $82 +$68 +82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $198 +$108 +55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $56 +$369 +664%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $103 +$116 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $79 −$37 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $96 +$172 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$114 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $38 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$26 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $167 −$3 -2%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $103 −$101 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $37 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $104 +$212 +203%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $194 −$190 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$89 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $73 +$117 +159%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 +$95 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $318 +$181 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $297 +$204 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $223 +$177 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 54¢ $1,177 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 27¢ $121 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $14 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $16 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? BUY Yes 55¢ $89 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 15¢ $76 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $253 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 98¢ $697 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 99¢ $567 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 51¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 51¢ $245 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 51¢ $47 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $5 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $1 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $0 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $4 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $93 6h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $101 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,150.70 · official $1,150.70 (match) · 252 history records