Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7a2…9721 sports 216 markets active 1d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$38 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%115W / 98L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$73
14 days−$52
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$74
sports 37% −$6
crypto 16% $0
world 6% −$41
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -43.3% -48.7% 27% 27% -34.8%
≤30d 17 -31.3% -37.8% 41% 35% -27.1%
≤90d 50 -24.1% -31.3% 44% 42% -19.5%
all 213 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 48% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 48% -8.5%
10% -19.2% 44% -17.3%
15% -27.0% 39% -25.3%
20% -34.2% 30% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses115 / 98
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 216
History coverage121d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -47%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $5 +$8 +152%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $10 +$10 +101%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$40 +79%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $30 +$27 +90%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $6 +$7 +114%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) Mar 30 $5 +$4 +81%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 134.5 Mar 30 $20 +$19 +95%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $5 +$3 +52%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $25 +$10 +40%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $8 +$12 +155%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $30 +$11 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 28h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 34h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 34h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Will Croatia win on 2 BUY 14¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6d
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $41 6d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 35¢ $11 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $10 9d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $20 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in BUY 3¢ $5 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 5¢ $3 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 14d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 14d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 18d
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Trail Blazers 54¢ $5 58d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 39¢ $5 58d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 58d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 499 history records