Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7a2…6ddd other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$37
sports 21% −$15
politics 9% −$7
economics 6% −$3
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$4
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage128d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $414 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $346 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $435 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $146 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $429 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $542 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $281 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $139 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $436 $0 +0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $271 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $382 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 3h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $53 15h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 20h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 21h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 26h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 27h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 29h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 3d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1307 history records