Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7a3…c00b other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 25% −$22
politics 8% −$8
economics 7% −$6
culture 4% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage135d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $526 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $675 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $128 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $334 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $371 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $566 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $148 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $150 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $676 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $73 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 6h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 7h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 9h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 11h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 15h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 21h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 23h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 25h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 26h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $63 28h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 29h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $63 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $63 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 41h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $7 46h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1340 history records